Surplus Value Sensitivity Analysis Model

Model 1. Version a. Input for Surplus Value Model - Sensitivity Analysis to Changes in the Length of the Working Day

This is an abstract simulation model in the process of development. As such not all of what I perceive to be conceptual errors have been eliminated. The ranges of values for suggested input variables represent only very rough guesses and need much empirical work. (March 16, 2001) These issues will be addressed later as the model is revised and corrected. It represents a demonstration in the use of economic modelling with a Common Gateway Interface (CGI) program.

This is an analysis of the sensitivity of value and surplus value to the length of the working day. It is an advance over the surplus value calculator. It examines the sensitivity of surplus value and value to changes in the length of the working day. These models are abstracted to the level of society and not applicable for individual concrete firms.

There are a number of limitations and problems remaining with this cgi model. This model still has a high level of abstraction. Use of realistic numbers at this level of abstraction will generate output that has meaning only in a rough form. Refinement is needed before more reasonable implications can be generated for concrete situations. Money has been introduced but at a high level of abstraction. We assume for simplicity that gold serves as commodity money. Here it must be remembered that the verison of the classical view (that I have and as I interpret it) is not a simple quantity theory of money. But for the purpose of this version of the model, more money tokens will result in higher nominal prices. This quazi quantity assumption is used only for illustrative purposes. It may have useful applicability under qualified circumstances. More realistic values and validation of the input factors need to be addressed.

Below are the input data that I am currently using in this model. The model will eventually examine the relationships among the value of labour power, the 'real' wage and surplus-value.

The variables must be entered all at the same time by hitting the submit button at the end only after all the blanks (8 in total) have been filled with the mouse and keys. Do not hit enter until all the blanks have been fill and until after the submit button is pressed. In fact, after the submit button is pressed, if the program is working the output page and the a summary of submitted inputs will appear. The output currently consists of two input summary tables and one sensitivity table on the compostion of value. It is planned that there will eventually be four more output tables these will include tables on: 1. Value per worker per day; 2. Socially necessary abstact Labor hours per worker per day; 3. A measure of the Use Value produced per day; and 4. Hourly nominal wages prior to and after considered changes in the length of the working day.

Model 1. Input for Surplus Value Sensitivity Analysis - the Length of the Working Day
Factor 1. Length of working day in hours (number between 1 and 18):
LOWD = Length of working day (hours) Try an initial value of 10. Range (1 < LOWD< 18) See the Bureau of Labor statistics for the number of hours worked per week. (Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates) Their Preliminary estimate for average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls for February 2001 was 34.2 hours per week. (March 18, 2001.) This works out to about 6.84 hours per week for a 5 day week. For this model, these estimates have to be later converted to yearly estimates. For now we will remain with the current set up.
Factor 2. Intensity of labor relative the the normal working day (a number between 1 and 3):
IOL=intensity of labor (1 = normal -- measures the number of products per labour hour per hour) This is only meanful between nations if there are differences and if different branches within a country do not simulteously and rapidly adjust to the same intensity. Try initial value of 1. Range (1<IOL< 3)
Factor 3. a measure of the Productivity of labor per worker per hour in subsistence goods. (.20 - .65):
Productiveness of labour (number of products per labour hour) This only affects the value of labour-power, and the magnitude of surplus-value if "the products of the industries affected are articles habitually consumed by the labourer." (K. Marx, Capital, Vol I. International Publishers, p. 525) "...But an increase in the productiveness of labour in those,branches of industry which supply neither the necessaries of life, nor the means of production for such necessaries, leaves the value of labour-power undisturbed." (K. Marx, Capital, Vol I. International Publishers. p. 315.) Try initial value of .45. Range(.2<POL<.45) In this model the relationship of the value productivity of labor to the a measure of the subsistence bundle is an important ration determining the rate of surplus value. Empirical work on this ratio would be particularly important. For the value for the subsistence bundle, productive workers would be the relevant category. Shaikh and Tonak estimate that productive workers in the U.S. economy make up about 36.3 % of total employment. This was for 1989. (Shaikh and Tonak, 1994, page 303.)
Factor 4. A value of the subsistence bundle of use values per worker per day (1.0 - 2.6):
A measure of necessaries in subsistance bundle. There is a difference here between the mass of necessaries and a measure of the use value obtained from them. We will ignore that for now. This is implicitly assumed for chapter 17. by Marx to be constant. Try an initial value of 1.48. Range(1<NUSVO<2.6)
Factor 5. Number of Workers per Capital
NOW = Number of workers per capital. (number)Try an initial value of 49. (range 40<NOW< 60, a rough range of productive labor in the U.S. in millions) There are about 135 people in the U.S. labor force. However, not all produce surplus value. Shaikh has estimated the proportion of the labor force that is productive - that is productive of surplus value. Of the 135 million about 49 million according to some estimates would be productive in terms of suplus value. (my rough estimates based on the literature.) Check out the Bureau of Labor Statistics for estimates of the labor force.
Factor 6. Definition of Gold ($35 and $450/oz)
IDG = definition of gold (currency units per ounce) Try an initial value of $450/ounce. Range (35<50<450) Can be determined by the market or government definition. It will depend on what issues are being examined and what institutional forms prevail. Check out the London Bullion Market Association London Market Statictics on Precious Metals for recent market estimates.
Factor 7. Socially Necessary labor per ounce of gold (5 to 50 (hours/oz)
IV = labour value of gold (socially necessary hours of abstract labour per ounce) Try an initial value of 10. Range(5<IV<50) This factor needs much conceptual development. The best way of dealing with this would be to have an estimate of socially necessary labor requirements. This would be difficult to obtain. A indirect way of obtainin this is to take the definintion of gold or market value and divide it by the average hourly wage. This would give us a rough ballpark estiamte of the socially necessary labor per ounce. This assumes that the definintion of gold or the market price reflects social value. In the short run this may not be the case.
Factor 8. Increment to the length of the length of the Working day (%)
ITWD = Increment in percent to the length of the working day (sensitivity analysis factor) Try an initial value of 1. Range (1<ITWD<10) %

Much of this model is based on chapter 17 of K. Marx, Capital, Vol. 1. International Publishers, pp. 519-530. I have made some additions that will be duly noted. Marx assumes that 1. commodities are sold at their values; and 2. the price of labour-power rises occasionally above its value but never sinks below it. It is also assumed that constant capital is equal to zero for this model. (Marx, Capital vol. 1, International publishers. p. 510.)
Copyright © 2001 Victor Kasper, Jr. All rights reserved.